RECESSION WATCH..

My daily newsdrop email today included this..

UK recession is officially over

The recession is officially over, according to figures published this morning which showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the last three months of 2009.

Two words (I promise!)

My arse.

CREME CHEESE EGGS..

Story of the week for me has to be the Kraft takeover of Cadbury's to yield the world's largest confectioner (behind Willy Wonka of course!).

Question: Will Creme Eggs ever be the same again?

Given that Kraft's processed cheese business is the largest in the world (by a long way) I do hope they don't start stuffing gloopy cheese into those eggs in place of the sweeter delicacy of sugary filling that graces them at present! I'd give it a go, but only once I think?

Some of the objections in the UK appear to revolve around the fact that a social institution such as Cadbury's - large Victorian family, built a village around their factory, invested in a lot of social infrastructure, etc etc - should be eaten up by a US mega-corporation. Like it doesn't happen every week of the year? But this time it's personal - a very large % of the UK population have been brought up on Cadbury's products and there will always be resistance to change. Think Marathon's re-branding to Snickers (possibly a bad example?) or the takeover of another staple Victorian social institiution Rowntree by Nestle..

Perhaps more worrying for those who have part of their pension pot stuffed into Creme Eggs, Dairy Milk and drinking chocolate (that'd be nice!) is the fact that Cadbury's largest shareholder, the billionaire and clearly exceedingly wise investor Warren Buffet, thinks it's a bad idea...

The takeover is going ahead at a 500p per share cash payment plus shares in Kraft which bring the valuation to 840p per share (up from an original approach by Kraft of 770p). Looks ok given that in the last year Cadbury shares have traded between 486.50 and 836.50 per share.

But, and it's a big BUT! At the same time, Kraft Foods rating has been severely downgraded to the lowest investment grade BBB- because they are not buying Cadbury with their own money (which they do not have enough of.. sound familiar?) but with leveraged finance (posh word for approximately $11 billion of debt!) and Kraft stocks which are at poor value.

Will they get away with it? Only time will tell.

On a lighter note if you take a look at the portfolio of Kraft and Cadbury products and mash them up a little, the possibiltiies are endless and mind-boggling..

Cadbury already own; Green & Black's organic chocolate, Maynards, Bassett's licorice, Fry's, Trebor, Trident in addition to their staples Curly Wurly, Dairy Milk, Creme Eggs, Crunchie, Cluster Bars, Flake, Double Decker, Wispa, Twirl, Fudge and on and on

Kraft own; Nabisco, Maxwell House, Oreo's, Milka Products, Philadelphia cheese, Oscar Mayer (cold meat products/hot dogs etc), Vegemite, Peek Freans (Bourbon and Garibaldi biscuits etc)..

Licorice Allsorts with Philadelphia creme cheese filling?
Extra Strong Mint Creme Egg anyone?
Hot Dog flavoured Dairy Milk?
Vegemite Green & Black's?

ねこ (neko)..

This page caught my eye this morning while random browsing was taking place..

click here

It contains some of the best photo shots of cats I've ever seen (neko is Japanese for cat by the way). Crystal clear, sharp images. Just beautiful.

Not my usual subject but there it is. Posted. Done.

P

Been a while since I did one of my 'girls I used to know' posts!

The day of LiveAid 1985 will always stick in my mind for one reason and one reason only. It was the day that P first slept with me, me with her and her with anyone at all. She wasn't yet 16 as I was not yet 17 and she was a couple of years below me at school. That's only just not 16 though isn't it? so I think I'm ok on that score. And she did want me to of course. Which is alright, isn't it? I have suddenly had a pang of guilt writing this blog.. but you have to know the person and everyone's different aren't they. That'll be my defence in a court of law (which is valid as will be revealed later).

Anyway.. somewhere in between the Coldstream Guards kicking off the shindig in London and Bob and the gang closing with Do They Know It's Christmas, in fact around 16:00 as far as I can remember (which Wikipedia tells me would have been around the time of Bryan Ferry and that makes sense as I'm not a massive fan) I found myself upstairs doing the deed so to speak. I don't remember too much about the exact moment really. To my shame. More a fumble than one for the history books. Well, I was only 17?!

After that I can't even remember what happened next. After sticking around for a while I probably got back on my Yamaha FS1E in my football casual gear (cords split and flared at the bottom with Farah material sewed in, espadrills and a nice adidas top - just the ticket for riding a motorbike in?) and scooted around town with a glow on me face. Being the first should always be an honour.

We had been seeing each other for a while. Mainly consisting of me arriving at her house most evenings and listening to records in her bedroom - the source of many of my favourite 80s albums. A big thank you must be tipped to this girl who was 2 years my junior but with exceptional music taste. Without her I wouldn't know too much about David Sylvian and a whole heap of other alternative/indie type artists.

But I was 17. I was footloose and fancy free with a Yamaha and a mission to get thrown out of sixth form and hang around with people that were known as 'the wrong types'. Strangely the ones that are still around on my facebook list have all turned out very decent people to be honest.

It turned out to be an on-again off-again relationship I had with P from that time and for years forward. We just had impeccably bad timing with each other. To this day I have a space in my heart for her. Only a little one but it is filled with very funny memories. She was a very funny person. Exceptionally bright. Exceptionaly cheeky. Which ensured she could get away with being exceptionally lazy too. A woman after my own heart!

Time washed around for two years or so and we got back together briefly. Just before I moved away to University. Seconds away, round two of bad timing.

Then, I think around four years later I found myself with her again. This time whilst back at my parents house briefly after finishing my first degree. A few weeks and nights really and then I moved to London to study some more. Bad timing. Again.

God knows what happened after that. She moved to London with a guy I used to go to cub scouts with. Weird how life circles. Ended up marrying him. But not before one more attempt. This time I was back in town for Christmas at the bar where all those who lived away congregate when they are back in town together - every place has one. A strange night when she propositioned me to go round the back alley. Such charm. Such style. I didn't. But not for want of wanting to to be honest. At the time I was with someone a great deal less appealing, bright or interesting as P and it would have made great sense to swap out one for the other. But bad timing struck thrice. This was the holiday I ended up beginning my career as a father.

In the end P turned out to become a solicitor in London or some such - hence the rehearsal of my law court defence! Tattooed and with piercings in all the wrong places for your conventional solicitor last time I saw her about ten years ago. Just like her to get away with it. Exceptionally cheeky. But still as bright as the first day I spoke to her.

(afterthought: this text was written 4 months ago and only just published, but now I really must tread carefully as she is a recent new contact on one of my social networking accounts and still working in the broad area of law - however, our brief renewed messages confirm to me that she thought the same about me as I did her and we are both now very happy doing what we do so nobody is any worse off).

This is one story in which I'm happy to report they all lived happily ever after. awww. nice.

CRIME..

It comes to something when a sad event happens - a very brave man trying to stop a crime happening has been killed in Barking this weekend (story link here) - and the chief of Police makes a statement that, "I would not encourage members of the public do that."

So, now the Police are saying don't try to stop crime in your neighbourhood. Let it happen. We'll detect it afterwards.



Like they do.



Time this country woke up? Time people start speaking up, being counted and being human again rather than just humans simply being (in between episodes of Celebrity I'm Trapped in a House owned by a larger next of kin than me and there's nothing really going on in here on Ice) methinks.

2010 is a year in which I for one have decided to become a little more vocal and more action-led in my life. If you don't like it, step off. Hopefully, others will take a similar line. Otherwise, it might be me or you that's next in line?

[addition: I notice in the days that have followed this story the Police have changed very subtley the press announcements. There is now an announcement by the Metropolitan Police that simply says they support people becoming involved in instances like this, but only when and where their own safety is assured.. It's a welcome start?]

ECONOMICS...

Now, I'm not the world's best economist.. Far from it. But I am an economist. Give me that.

As I cook my risotto tonight, back from the local pub in the snow and waiting for the rice to soften, I am quite frankly amazed at the audacity of some people. And a neighbour at that. Having said that, if any of my other neighbours read this they would know who I'm talking about immediately given this guy happens to embarass himself on a regular basis (or at least more than I do ;) - a sense of humour is always useful in life )

I have just come back from a conversation with (incidentally a Guardian reader) who thinks that gas is a public good - hot on the heels of some story sowed from the paper he reads about utilities companies making profits or something, he clearly had an issue with gas this evening? Anyway, given that I challenged him on the definition of a public good by pointing out that if there were only one litre of gas left in the world and he used it to heat his house I would not be able to heat my own (joint and non-excludable consumption - look it up if you are lost) I think I rest my case... At this point he very un-chivalrously, unmanly and downright rudely turned his back on me..

Look up the proper definition of a public good if you will - here.

This guy knows nothing. Full stop.

Anyway, I must go off to stir my risotto - but please, I do know more than the average Joe in the pub about economics - my parents will tell you that given they funded my education. My pupils may also tell you that, from the four countries where I have lectured. And lastly, but not leastly, my current clients might tell you the same given they pay me a handsome daily amount to advise them.

What is my neighbour doing on a daily basis? Well, from what I can see, nothing more than reading the Guardian and listening to Radio bore, sorry four, not much else.....

This IS what is wrong with the UK right now - too many coffee table economists, politicians, newspaper educated policy advisers that haven't a fucking clue about the basic tools never mind the real world complexities. Apologies for no deletions of the swearing but - to be honest - the time HAS come... 2010 the year of say it as it is. And if you don't know about a subject - do what I do - SHUT THE FUCK UP...

LET IT SNOW...

Snow. Snow. Snow. Lots of it. And this time, for a very long time – at least in the balance of 21st century weather patterns (which isn't hard given this is the 10th year of 100?).. or is this just a tipping point?

I do love snow. It brings out the best in people and the worst in people. How many times in the past few days have you heard people moaning about the snow and ‘when will it go away’ or ‘it’s alright but I’ve got things to do’.

My advice to all is simple. Get over it. Not a damn thing you can do about it. You ain’t that important and if you didn’t turn up for work for a few days, you know what? Not a damn thing would change anyhow.


Don’t get me wrong, life isn’t as easy with it. This morning I had to spend 30 minutes digging a channel to two chicken coops and digging them out before I could even get food and water to them. And the water is freezing within an hour so it needs changing and warming back up again. You have to spare some thought for the animals that are stuck out in this stuff – one or two hours wrapped up in trendy, bright coloured Berghaus or North Face clothing with a bobble hat to top it all off and us humans are as toasty as anything. Then we return to the comfort of our constantly running central heating (not our house I hasten to add!) and log fires (our house, most definitely).

I live on a hill. A very steep hill that is exposed to the wind. This means my hill is cut-off – to all but those with (some) Land Rovers, tractors and quad bikes.. but when it really snows, then forget any of these as feet are the only useable method of transport.


So, as I take it easy over the next week or two (the forecast is for more peeps!) this gets me a thinking..

What are life’s essential comforts when you get snowed in?

1. Top of my list has to be a warm human being to cuddle up to. Preferably an attractive one with a brain and plenty of conversation as well as warm blood pumping through their veins. It helps.
2. A pub within 2 miles walk, that has a real fire and serves good beer.
3. A sledge for the fun of it.
4. Call of Duty MW2 on PS3 (rumour has it that Xbox’s give up the ghost in such extreme weather – tongue embedded in cheek)
5. A Land Rover.
6. Plenty of books.
7. Plenty of red wine.


In this weather, my life is truly complete!