THAT'S THE POINT....???

This amused me today as I read through my first 30 minutes of news etc online -

Then it got me a bit angry really.

If you read the first headline it is all about the benefits to Royal Bank of Scotland in reviving an old family name for a part of their bank, opening new branches on the High St (things going round in circles?!) as their business surveys and advice have been that people like family based names and images for business - good, solid, reliable and not too risky. Just the sort of thing you'd want from somewhere you are taking your hard earned money each week. You get the point.

The second headline is all about market research that suggests people apparently don't like family-based businesses (reader: err.... we've already just covered how people like their reliability haven't we? Polko: yes, stick with me on this...).

Ah, hang on though, it gets better. The article then goes on to suggest that one reason people are not so in favour of family business is because they don't have as much of a voice in business organisations (like the CBI etc) as they do elsewhere. This might be true.

The more powerful argument however, is that family based businesses appear to be boring and slower moving when people want to see 'The Apprentice' style flashy bastards, doing deals, making loads of cash and sitting round in gloss white boardrooms in perfect suits being 'entrepreneurs' (sic - or more like "be sick").

In actual fact, the rest of healthy Europe know the value of family based businesses, low in borrowing, slower moving but growing through time to strong, solid organisations and often producing major products for overseas customers. These firms gain maximum respect in their local areas for being cautious and not throwing away their workforce's pension schemes on some half thought out diversification into property development or online retailing. Google 'Mittelstadt' see what comes up - or better still just click here if you want a quick intro to these types of business.

Sometimes you can come across a similar firm in the UK. Though, it must be said, they are getting thinner on the ground these days. Everybody wants to be a property developer or wannabe Alan Sugar it seems.

Family firms are not boring or conservative. They are dynamic but they take decisions for the long-term, in the best interests of their family members and family members to come. This means they can make much, much longer term decisions and maker braver ones than those looking for a short-term kill.

Long live family businesses. Shame Williams and Glyn's will just be another big corporate bank dressed up in the family's heirlooms.

MISSED THE BOAT...

In January I was given a gift. It came in the form of two words = Baillie Gifford

Their share price was touted around in early 2013 as one to watch or, if you had the balls/foresight, to invest in. At the time it was 150p per share.

Baillie Gifford Japan Trust plc are a securities house that invest funds across a range of Japanese companies, property and other investments to make other people money and themselves a good cut of the profit. Despite my interest in Japan and things Japanese (and I don't just mean the japanese girls comments I've made in the past!) I didn't do anything about it.

Lately though, the news has been full of the turnaround in the Japanese economy that has been made in the last 5 months, mainly being attributed to the new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - last weeks' Economist magazine even hailed him a Superman!

The Nikkei Index, Tokyo's main stock tracker index has gone up in value by 55% in the last 5 months.

So, I checked the stock price for Baillie Gifford again today. Rightly enough it has gone up. But I wasn't quite ready for the magnitude of the gain.

Currently priced at 312p per share, a gain had I had the balls (?) of 108%, dwarfing the 55% general index increase...

Sat here in May those two words have turned into one.

Balls...
 

DIRTY FEET...

Every once in a while you have to do very little on a blog to create an impact!

This is one of those posts. A great and engaging infographic, with colour, attraction and loaded with information. Enjoy.

Global Carbon Footprint infographic

JOBS FOR...?

These are not my words.. they appeared today in response to a 2 hour long blog/open discussion hosted by The Guardian newspaper here in the UK about local economic development and inward investment. Effectively a talking shop on how best to approach increasing employment and getting foreign owned companies to invest in places outside of London.

As I say, they are not my words (in fact they belong to someone named 'simsum' on the Guardian site)..  but I must say I agree with almost every last one of them.  And I am qualified to say that given that half of my work involves exposure to people working for local authorities and charged with 'creating' employment!

There is a very good reason that councils are referred to as "simple shoppers" by the private sector because they have absolutely no idea how to create wealth, jobs, opportunities or manage resources effectively. That is the reason they work for the council because they had/have no ambition or ability other than to either obtain a job with a council to stay the course for life or perhaps stay long enouhg in that council to eventually get bumped up the greasy pole by route of drinking with the boss, saying all the right "buzz words" at the right time or the charity work scam!

Numerous examples exist of how housing associations/councils have jumped into bed with PFI contracts without the ability to adequately seek an alternative for the taxpayers. Why? because they simply don't have the skills or ability to do so that is why they work for councils. 

I have two relatives who are jokingly referred to as a deputy and chief exec (why these titles exist in local authorities apart from the fact it allows the scam of paying themselves obscene salaries and then claim it is on a par with the private sector i will never know). 

What exactly is localism? Does anyone know? Does anyone know how it is applied to the long suffering taxpayers? 
How will localism really work when the threat of central government oversight is being waived about by eric pickles like a kebab about to be stuffed in his fat face!

If local councils were able to create jobs, growth, real savings for taxpayers do you think they would be working at the council?

What we have are councils up and down the country who are unable to create anything other than council job hoping managers and fat redundancies at the taxpayers expense. It don't matter to them because it is not their money unlike the private sector entrepreneur who has a personal stake in his creation.

Do all the European jollies and paid for corporate days out really help the local economy and if so how?

The best thing councils and councillors can do is to shuffle paper around and stay out of the way of real wealth creators. 

These words come hot on the heels of news this week that a fraudulent company has taken a bunch of headteachers for idiots to the tune of around £300m in a technology and equipment leasing scheme - the headteachers claimed that they were told they could have loads of IT resources and didn't have to pay much for them as an anonymous donor had stumped up most of the money. When they signed the leases (for the full amounts per month - doh!!!) the company then disappeared and they were left with big bills. Some even ended up paying 4 to 5 times what the equipment was worth.

What happened to the teachers? Sacked? No, not really - they have retired on their pensions. Only happens in the public sector! Here's the link

I rest my case.

BRICKS OR HORSES...

Here’s an interesting detail. Since the early 1970s what happens in the bloodstock market is mirrored by the property market and wider economy 18 months later.  By that I mean the sale values of unbroken, unraced yearlings.  When they reach a peak, the property market runs ahead for a year and a half and then tops out.

The last boom for yearling sales reached its peak during 2006.  During that year property investor John Magnier bid $16m for a colt named The Green Monkey. The horse proved hopeless and values tailed off. So too, did the economy and had a disastrous year in 2008.

And the good news is...

...at end 2011 the bloodstock market is buoyant again!

Prices achieved at Tattersall's October sale in Newmarket were up 35% year on year.  Property investor Sir Robert Ogden bought a filly for £900,000.

So, in 18 months will the property market and fortunes be booming again?  On the strength of the econometric analysis you wouldn't lay odds much higher than 2:1 or maybe even odds on?

CHOCOLATE MICE..

Two important news items almost slipped me by this month.

Chocolate is good for you. We all know that already - it releases feelgood chemicals in the brain and makes life happier, not counting the benefits of sharing chocolates with your friends which it turns out builds up social capital and goodwill - note to friends: I will love you more if you share with me!

A recent research study exercised mice and measured their fitness levels.  A control group were fed small chunks of dark chocolate over the same period and they appeared to have the same if not better levels of fitness as the runners. Here's the link if you don't believe me.. onlinelibrary

Don't get too excited though, a second run of the experiment was undertaken on middle aged mice and the group that ran and had chocolate too did better than the couch-mice who sat around all day (well, I say sit.. but that's quite hard for a mouse to do properly? more like lay around) eating chocolate.

The second is the not so surprising revelation that Cadbury's, purveyors of fine boxes of chocolates that have seen me through many a stressful report writing time, is reducing the number of chocolates in the tin just ahead of the busy Christmas buying period..

No real surprise given the continual reducing size of various chocolate bars over the past years (and don't get me started on cakes!!!  see my December 2010 blog on that one here), but I bet they won't reduce the size of the tin they come in. Oh no. How many people are going to be duped into buying what they think are the same number of chocolates?

You know who I think the real culprits are? The stores that continually offer tins of chocolates as loss leaders to draw people in - stacks and stacks of them greeted me last time I walked into Tesco at 'half price' allegedly.  Who would pay £10 for a tin? And our local Co-op never seems to have an end to the 2 for £8 offers on Roses tins?  If the stores are offering the discounted product, then you can bet they have been squeezing the manufacturer on cost.  The manufacturer is then only able to maintain their required profits by doing two things.

The first is to substitute cheaper raw materials into the mix - not something advised in the UK chocolate market which is dominated by only a few brands and where any reduction in quality, if perceived by the customer, would lead to mass switching of brand loyalty and significant pain to the business.

The second option open to manufacturers is to reduce the number of chocolates in the tins.  This latest reduction sees Roses down to 1 lb 14 oz from 2 lb 2 oz.  That's a reduction from 964g to 850g for metric-heads.  Equivalent to an 11.8% reduction.  Not a small graudal amount in anybody's book???  Cadbury's Heroes - always and unexplainedly a slightly more expensive purchase for a less luxurious set of chocolates I think you'd agree? - go down from 936g to 794g, a whopping reduction of 15.2%...

Not much we can do about it - except switch brand or get wise and stop buying the Heroes on rational economics grounds. Cadbury's Roses were always my favourite anyhow.
 

DEFINE IRONY...

 
Some irony courtesy of The Economist this week..

"The great irony of Mr Cameron's predicament is that he has managed to get himself embroiled in a crisis concerning something he has never really cared about: newspapers."

Full editorial here

 

HERE'S A PREZI...

  
Powerpoint is dead. Long live prezi.

Prezi is a new presentation system - anyone can use it after thinking through what you want to say. I'm completely converted and looking forward to the gasps and awe of people I present to (lol).

Here's a great example with a great content.

The root cause of our failed economy on Prezi

The one thing I like about this though is it will make someone with little to say look a complete fool!

At the end of the day, a good presentation is one that is delivered by somebody with something to say and who knows their onions.  It'll sort the fakers from the gurus this. I like!
  

ECONOMY WATCH..

  

Who knows where the UK economy is heading?

Public sector employment is falling.  That is, in the main, a good thing.  From where I sit - and it is an educated and informed position - the people I've seen losing jobs in the public sector in the past year or two have been well deserved recruits to the dole lines.  The really good ones, the committed individuals, are still there or left in frustration some years ago.

I wouldn't employ many of the recent redundancies let's put it that way.  These are the people who could never quite grasp that the rest of the world wasn't full of 'training days', extended leave periods for illness and the like.  Almost every email to one of these people would get an instant auto-response saying, "sorry I am out of the office until x and will not be receiving my emails...'

But private sector employment took a hit at the beginning of the recession.  And it hasn't picked itself up yet.  Not even to fill the drop in employment from two years ago let alone to create new jobs for all those useful public sector people now sat at home [at this point the reader should not get unduly concerned for their welfare as many of these people are sat on bundles of (our) cash from very attractive redundancy payments let alone the promise of their cosy public sector, final salary pensions kicking in].

So, here's what the graph looks like with some historical perspective...

Who knows where that line is going to turn - up or down?

In short, nobody.

 

PRESENTATIONS..

  

As I sit here today working on a presentation for a client next week, I'm horribly reminded of the many, many dry presentations I've had to sit through in my life.

..and then something amazing happens.  And it only takes 5 minutes and 40 seconds (including adverts).

That something amazing is this..

And so less than 6 minutes later I am inspired to do something different and push the boundaries with my next presentation.  Which was never going to be dry and boring in the first place I might add..

Must crack on!

 

I LIKE TO EXCEL!

  
In a single transaction yesterday I downloaded 5,364,510 cells of data on what people do for a living and where they do it in the whole of England, Wales and Scotland.

That's a lot of cells. It breaks Microsoft Excel so you have to build it into an Access database, or preferably SQL, or whatever.

The official data agency that keeps this data for download and analysis couldn't cope with my demands (they place a 1m limit on the downloading of data) so I had to perform the request in 7 chunks. Why the limit? It doesn't take a brain surgeon to split the request and then re-build it at the other end, but it is mighty annoying to have to do so.

But now that I've got my hands on the data I can do amazing things with it when I blend it into my mapping software (there's the SQL bit) and output that to Crystal Reports!  Things that, to my knowledge, no other private sector economist in the country has yet done. Which is good. And keeps Polko a very busy boy.

The problem though is that this data is not good enough.

This is the problem with a lot of UK data to be honest. As one of the leading lights (?) of European economies we should have a great data collection, drilling down into all sorts of very specific areas and allowing a really deep analysis of what is happening at any one time.

The data I have is dated 2008.  The 'new' 2009 data is set to be released some time during December and I will again draw the whole of it into my web.  But, come on.  It shouldn't take 12 months after data is collected to collate it, check it, set it in the correct format for people to download, etc.  Not in the 21st Century.  I'd like to bet if the government were to outsource this data collection to a private company - and they are already out there - it would be 'on the shelves' and ready to use within half that time.  Maybe less.

In fact, in a conversation I had with the Office for National Statistics last week I was told 'there are issues' with the release data and they hinted at it being late..

The data I have details where people work, what type of business they work in, male or female and whether full or part time pretty well. But why can I not then get data that shows me how old they are? A simple addition but it might be useful?

Like I said, outsource this stuff. 

There are companies out there that colllect millions of credit card transactions and banking transactions on a daily basis and I can buy summaries for any area of how much people are spending, on what, where and their age and even type of house they live in.  This data is updated on a monthly basis and I can have it for September right now if I want it.

Think about it: This guy's salary is your tax.

 

A tired 12 month old dataset that a group of civil servants have been using for a pillow in a darkened basement room in Whitehall is just not good enough.

 

UNITED STATES OF SLOW GROWTH..

   
I am in London at the moment, at a conference in the City of London about the fate and future of financial Services.  But, Polko's world is full of different sectors of economic activity that are creeping along slowly and have problems all their own.

I derive a lot of my work from public sector money spent to bring people into the UK and to specific towns and cities around the place.

There is no money on the table to do that at the moment - the government are undertaking a review of their spending or I shuold say the last government's spending and therefore, as it turns out, their own complete in-ability to spend for some time to come...

The other part of what I do is property.  And that tap switched off some time ago (but is showing small signs of dripping back into action)..

So, my world is impacted by these issues.

Surprise, surprise when I was reading around the BBC News site this morning and I came across what seems to be a hidden embedded message just for me then!

I love going to America, and went only this last year.

But, if this economic slow-down continues I'm not going to be going back for a long time yet.  So, the last line - which doesn't appear to be linked to anything above it - seems to have been placed there to bring me a divine message. or something.

In any case, a strange event, and makes me more energised to get out onto these streets and find some work from wherever it can be found.

Go to go now, meeting to attend!
   

RULE BRITTANIA?

   
So, here I sit after a night out with a few clients and ready to sleep in a hotel in the City of London - Financial Capital of the world (95% of all non-ferrous metal trades done in this city, 70% of all private equity fund managed from here...da da da)

And here is my hotel's internet speed rating...

What a complete joke?  260k download less than one mile from the UK Stock Exchange!!!

The stats I've quoted above were part of William Hague's speech tonight at the Honourable Artillery Company HQ in the Barbican, just north of all this so called action.  And I'm sat in my hotel, just round the corner.  So why is my internet connection so crap?

Because Britain ain't so great, that's why.  Because Britain ruled the waves a long long time ago.

We have a lot to wake up to....

..and very soon.

October 20th looms large.

I'll give you a hint.. but you can also look it up for yourself - or buy a paper on October 21st.  A good paper that is.  Not some sensationalist shite like most people will read and carry on their lives like nothing is changed.  Paying taxes, moaning about the price of things. Watching shite TV.

October 20th = UK government's Comprehensive (?) Spending Review day....

Watch this space... as in some way it WILL affect you...

A LITTLE FREAKONOMICS..

As I try my hardest to stay focused on something this week that really has to be finalised I am also looking for ways to kick-start my ambition.  A good few years ago I had bags of it, left home early(ish), trod the golden pavements of a big city, worked in a crazy Japanese securities house in the City, went on to study an economics degree and further, got a job, travelled and lectured, wrote a book, got another job, travelled more, advised some government departments and generally had a good time whilst doing it all (interviewing the Hungarian environment minister whilst sobering up from the night before wasn't my best move though!).

These days I find it harder to motivate myself to walk out the door let alone go and do anything like I used to. God knows why, but it's just the way it has been for a while.

But it has to change.

And so.. onto a little story about genetics, economics and games..

Recently experimental economists Lise Vesterlund (University of Pittsburgh) and Muriel Niederle (Stanford) conducted a study in which they assembled 40 men and 40 women, gave them five minutes to add up as many two-digit numbers as they could, and paid them 50 cents for each correct answer. The subjects were not competing against one another but simply playing against the house.

Then the game was changed to a tournament in which the subjects were divided into teams of two men or two women each. Winning teams got 2 dollars for every right answer, nothing for getting it wrong. Men and women performed equally in both tests.  In a third round, the participants were asked which of the two ways they wanted to play, tournament or simply against the house for the most money they could.  Only 35% of the women opted for the tournament format against 75% of the men.

So what was the conclusion? "Men and women just differ in their appetite for competition," says Vesterlund. "There seems to be a dislike for it among women and a preference among men."

Even though this research is the latest by Niederle since she began looking at gender issues and testing them in 2003 I'm not too sure this is true.  Or maybe I've just met some strange women?

I'll post some more on game theory later as it is useful in where a lot of economics is going at the moment - behavioural theory and biology to test out economic results.  Why wasn't this blend in vogue when I was studying economics? grr...

Here's a link to Muriel's web page - click

And Hal Varian also covers the research on men/women differences to
competitive environments - here
   

A QUICKIE...

Polko is getting busier.. so a quick few nods to other things I've found on the web rather than anything fresh..

It also avoids me uttering anything to do with the up coming election on this blog (apart from that statement itself). There's gonna be a lot of hot air and crap blogged between now and the election and I for one am not adding to the Gigabytes of wasted storage on it.Put simply, I'm already bored of it all.

This is hilarious - basically somebody taking apart a stupid poll about how bad teenagers are at managing finances, etc.  The main point being the publisher gets it seriously wrong with a few pie charts that don't add up or shouldn't be pie charts at ll..  Funny enough, but then the original publisher tries to be funny and clever about their use of the pie charts and gets it wrong again in the comments to the blog! doh!  Worth a read - it's only a short article.

Freakonomics - Steve and Steve are at it again, pushing their brand forward!  As if taking the two fantastic books Freakonomics and and Superfreakonomics and adding to them with a lively website and blog, then taking this and airing a downloadable Freakonomics radio station on iTunes were not enough...

Apparently a Freakonomics film/documentary is in post-production stage and is scheduled to air at selected film festivals in the USA this Spring. Details are posted on IMDB and I will blog further information if and when it becomes available in the UK.  I'm off to America in June and will dig further when there too.  I always knew the age of the Economist would arrive!

Possibly even more exciting is the fact that Zoe Sloane plays a lead role... woo hoo! She's drop dead gorgeous as far as I'm concerned and can only add more glamour to an incredibly glamorous subject matter!

To cool down a little, consider this.  The nail varnish below retails in a High Street store at £19 a 13ml bottle for colour #505.

Why during MArch 2010 did it sell at £30 - £45 a bottle on eBay then?  Remember, there's little or no guarantee that you're getting the same product as you are in the likes of Harrods, House of Fraser or your local independent when buying from a faceless eBay seller either?

Firstly, those who are happy to pay £19 for a bottle of enamel paint (for that is all it is) because it comes in a nice glass bottle as opposed to a tin like a Humbrol paint (incidentally Humbrol #62 looks a very similar match and can be had for £1-40 for a 14ml tin in model shops or here) and bears the name Chanel are likely to be little interested in the difference between it costing £10 and £30 or more.. the demand for the product is 'price inelastic' or those who want it are unlikely to change their demand with an increase in its price (to a point obviously).  Mind you, if you consider that Humbrol are making profit at 10p/ml on their product Chanel must be laughing all the way to 'le banque' charging £1-46/ml!!

Secondly, #505 is a limited edition Spring 2010 only colour. For economists this translates into a fixed supply curve.  That means only one thing, higher prices to consumers than if supply could be increased as more people demand the product.  Matched with an inelastic demand curve a fixed supply means steep price hikes will always result from very small increases in demand for a product (following advertising for example).  Little surprise then that Chanel are happy to pay high prices for glossy magazine ads promoting #505 as the new black!

Wonder if Zoe wears #505? Doesn't say so on her website?

PISSED UP IN THE RAIN...

 

  
Tell me I'm not dreaming this one up.  A recent contract notice system threw the following up as a new research project that is currently being let in the UK..

Research into the Needs of Street Drinkers in [..the specified location] ...to ascertain the need for, and recommendations for delivery of, a managed place or places where street drinkers may drink alcohol. Estimated contract start date: 01/04/2010. Estimated contract end date: 30/06/2010 Contract Period: 3 (months)....

I did a bit of digging and found out the details.  The work is being let by a regional charity in the north of England, already providing welcome shelters for the homeless and 'soup kitchen' style support.

Don't get me wrong I'm all for that sort of service and the potential that then exists to talk with these people and start them on their way to overcoming some of their problems..  But there's a big leap between helping people in general and allowing them to drink on your premises when it's too cold or wet for them outside??

A quick goggle at google finds this too:
Wet Day Centres for Street Drinkers: A Research Report and Manual

So, next time you are luxuriating in the warm and cosy confines of your local pub raise a glass to 'Street Drinkers', a new disadvantaged group in society that the New Labour machine wants to help...  Where will it end?

Is this yet more evidence of the UK's public sector money (i.e. our tax take) being wasted on wasters?  Make your own mind up.  Mine already is.

Just to rub insult into the waste of money, here's a pic of a sleepy drunk guy taken at around 11:00 am one Saturday last year in a north of England town that shall remain unnamed - sat on a bench in front of a water feature / public art sculpture (call it what you will - you bought it after all) that was part of the town's regeneration effort.  Effort being a very fitting description.  Clearly didn't make much of an impression on him or change his outlook on life in any substantial way?

I'll be posting more on the subject of public funded art projects soon.
However, whilst bobbing around the web researching this post I did find this little gem worth a link and click - Leo Leigh film love story

A LOAD OF HOT AIR...

..or maybe cold?

During January 2010 the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change (what a strange coupling of ideologies for a government department?) released the winning bids from developers for the third round of offshore wind farms - forming nine Round 3 zones off the coastline of Britain as follows:

source: bwea.com

All winning bidders will benefit from exclusive rights to develop wind farms within their zones - subject to staying within individual Zone Development Agreements which set out basic issues such as maximum capacity to be developed, scale of turbines, etc

February saw the beginning of detailed plans by the developers - commissioning planners, infrastructure advisors, port operators and other associated consultants are all being assembled. The developers will hold 12 events across the country to fill their supply chains with partner organisations.  All to be done by the end of March (but of course everyone involved has had plenty of advance notice).

The third phase of offshore wind farm development is by far the largest so far in the UK, with a maximum generation capacity of 32GW - enough to feed around 19.2 million homes (equivalent to an impressive 76% of the 25.2 million estimated households in Britain at 2009).

The cost is going to be around £100bn. And that's a minimum to get things started.

So the future may well turn out to be a load of cold air unless the funding is secured.

And given the green credentials of offshore wind and the lack of anybody's backyard out there in the oceans for people to complain about that really would be a shame.

Loads more info at the Renewable Energy UK website here

RECESSION WATCH..

My daily newsdrop email today included this..

UK recession is officially over

The recession is officially over, according to figures published this morning which showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the last three months of 2009.

Two words (I promise!)

My arse.

ECONOMICS...

Now, I'm not the world's best economist.. Far from it. But I am an economist. Give me that.

As I cook my risotto tonight, back from the local pub in the snow and waiting for the rice to soften, I am quite frankly amazed at the audacity of some people. And a neighbour at that. Having said that, if any of my other neighbours read this they would know who I'm talking about immediately given this guy happens to embarass himself on a regular basis (or at least more than I do ;) - a sense of humour is always useful in life )

I have just come back from a conversation with (incidentally a Guardian reader) who thinks that gas is a public good - hot on the heels of some story sowed from the paper he reads about utilities companies making profits or something, he clearly had an issue with gas this evening? Anyway, given that I challenged him on the definition of a public good by pointing out that if there were only one litre of gas left in the world and he used it to heat his house I would not be able to heat my own (joint and non-excludable consumption - look it up if you are lost) I think I rest my case... At this point he very un-chivalrously, unmanly and downright rudely turned his back on me..

Look up the proper definition of a public good if you will - here.

This guy knows nothing. Full stop.

Anyway, I must go off to stir my risotto - but please, I do know more than the average Joe in the pub about economics - my parents will tell you that given they funded my education. My pupils may also tell you that, from the four countries where I have lectured. And lastly, but not leastly, my current clients might tell you the same given they pay me a handsome daily amount to advise them.

What is my neighbour doing on a daily basis? Well, from what I can see, nothing more than reading the Guardian and listening to Radio bore, sorry four, not much else.....

This IS what is wrong with the UK right now - too many coffee table economists, politicians, newspaper educated policy advisers that haven't a fucking clue about the basic tools never mind the real world complexities. Apologies for no deletions of the swearing but - to be honest - the time HAS come... 2010 the year of say it as it is. And if you don't know about a subject - do what I do - SHUT THE FUCK UP...

WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE?

I am an economist, just like the Chancellor and now Prime Minister Gordon Brown (though thankfully a very different flavoured one than him)..

Today's news on the BBC website carries the story that Mr Brown has promised the UK economy will not only recover but will return to growth in 2010..

Who does he think he is? That kind of talk gets economists and economic theory a bad name. We do forecast variables from time to time, my favourites being population numbers, but are never as blasé as to think we can know what will happen in the future. Maybe Mr Brown has had a visit from Marty McFly or a replicant from the future? Maybe, as is more likely, he's just in denial of reality.

Whatever Mr Brown.

What I know for certain is that we wouldn't be in our current situation and would certainly have been better off if you and yours hadn't handed the banks money on a plate just to get your ugly mugs in with the electorate (which didn't work anyway). The bankers must have laughed their socks off when they got away with that kind of treatment last year. Brown & a bunch of former teachers and union reps meddling in international financial markets like they were some sort of financial guru's. I know plenty of other people with strong views about life in the City that have never been within a mile of the Square Mile (in my defence at least I used to work there but I still exercise caution when criticising traders lifestyles and pay rates)..

Yesterday's FT Weekend carried an interview with George Soros, someone I trust to know what is going on in the world of finance a lot more than some baggy suited, overweight Scottish geek. This is someone that landed in the US post-war with less than $5 to his name and is now one of the richest men on the planet. All through gaining a deep psychological understanding of how humans and therefore groups of humans (i.e. markets) work.

So, in closing I am happy to quote 'The Man':

Soros characterises Wall Street profits as 'gifts' from the state
"those [bank] earnings are not the achievement of risk-takers, these are gifts , hidden gifts, from the government, so I don't think that those monies should be used to pay bonuses. There's a resentment which I think is justified."

Soros is giving a series of lectures in Budapest next week in which he is developing these thoughts. I may well step on a plane if I could only get a ticket!