BRICKS OR HORSES...

Here’s an interesting detail. Since the early 1970s what happens in the bloodstock market is mirrored by the property market and wider economy 18 months later.  By that I mean the sale values of unbroken, unraced yearlings.  When they reach a peak, the property market runs ahead for a year and a half and then tops out.

The last boom for yearling sales reached its peak during 2006.  During that year property investor John Magnier bid $16m for a colt named The Green Monkey. The horse proved hopeless and values tailed off. So too, did the economy and had a disastrous year in 2008.

And the good news is...

...at end 2011 the bloodstock market is buoyant again!

Prices achieved at Tattersall's October sale in Newmarket were up 35% year on year.  Property investor Sir Robert Ogden bought a filly for £900,000.

So, in 18 months will the property market and fortunes be booming again?  On the strength of the econometric analysis you wouldn't lay odds much higher than 2:1 or maybe even odds on?