WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE?

I am an economist, just like the Chancellor and now Prime Minister Gordon Brown (though thankfully a very different flavoured one than him)..

Today's news on the BBC website carries the story that Mr Brown has promised the UK economy will not only recover but will return to growth in 2010..

Who does he think he is? That kind of talk gets economists and economic theory a bad name. We do forecast variables from time to time, my favourites being population numbers, but are never as blasé as to think we can know what will happen in the future. Maybe Mr Brown has had a visit from Marty McFly or a replicant from the future? Maybe, as is more likely, he's just in denial of reality.

Whatever Mr Brown.

What I know for certain is that we wouldn't be in our current situation and would certainly have been better off if you and yours hadn't handed the banks money on a plate just to get your ugly mugs in with the electorate (which didn't work anyway). The bankers must have laughed their socks off when they got away with that kind of treatment last year. Brown & a bunch of former teachers and union reps meddling in international financial markets like they were some sort of financial guru's. I know plenty of other people with strong views about life in the City that have never been within a mile of the Square Mile (in my defence at least I used to work there but I still exercise caution when criticising traders lifestyles and pay rates)..

Yesterday's FT Weekend carried an interview with George Soros, someone I trust to know what is going on in the world of finance a lot more than some baggy suited, overweight Scottish geek. This is someone that landed in the US post-war with less than $5 to his name and is now one of the richest men on the planet. All through gaining a deep psychological understanding of how humans and therefore groups of humans (i.e. markets) work.

So, in closing I am happy to quote 'The Man':

Soros characterises Wall Street profits as 'gifts' from the state
"those [bank] earnings are not the achievement of risk-takers, these are gifts , hidden gifts, from the government, so I don't think that those monies should be used to pay bonuses. There's a resentment which I think is justified."

Soros is giving a series of lectures in Budapest next week in which he is developing these thoughts. I may well step on a plane if I could only get a ticket!