COUNT THOSE CALORIES...

Once upon a time in New York.. a few restaurants started to publish calorie counts on their menus.  This trend started slow but grew and grew.  Until one day people in New York woke up to notice that they couldn't avoid calorie counts here, there and everywhere..

And one day a politician woke up somewhere in New York State thinking, this is a good wheeze to get me noticed.  He huffed and he puffed, and he pushed and he pushed until some months later (it must be said under heavy attack from the powers that run America's large fast food chains!) a new Healthcare Bill has been passed and now proudly shows off Barack Obama's signature on the bottom since Tuesday.

A central component of the new law is the concept of calorie count disclosure - chain restaurants with more than 20 locations will now have to place (prominently) the calorie content of an item alongside its price.  This is estimated to affect over 200,000 locations in North America.  Vending machines will also have to comply.

Rationale: increased information flows to consumers who can now make better decisions based on the true cost of their consumption (ignoring for now the hidden environmental cost of ripping up agricultural lands or forests to feed cattle for burgers or plant more coffee beans - that's another story that I'll get to one day perhaps).  Information to hand at the point of consumption notice, not posted down some dark hallway, on a hamburger wrapper once you've bought it or on the company website.

Result? Well, on first glance this has to be applauded. As an economist more information is good in my book whatever and whichever market we're talking about.  But, when you start to think this through isn't it just passing the buck from a legitimate government job of informing and educating to the companies and their consumers.  This last group are critical too.  All data (from the Western world at least) display a clear correlation between higher obesity rates and lower socio-economic classes of society.  Seems clear.  Let's help exactly those people who are suffering from a lack of education about what is good or bad for their health?  But, it strikes me it's not so simple.  A simple calorie count isn't going to do much for somebody who can't put the calorie count in perspective, 500 calories? but 500 calories out of what daily allowance for me?  And I'm not going on to the seemingly large body (!) of people who seem to take pride in going against official advice in the first place.

Of course calorific intake is also more complex than a simple counting of numbers.  500 calories in a fat-laden burger does not equal 500 calories in a suger-laden drink. I'm sure any dentist would agree.  So, in my book good labeling needs to reflect this not ignore it.

What we are really talking about here is moulding human behavior.  Making people change.  That is a tough thing to do - especially when it goes against self-interest - much, much tougher than we think. Unless a nudge has a shove attached (and calorie counts on their own don't) most people will remain unmoved.

The other sticky point is of course implementation.  Under the Bill the FDA now have 12 months to come up with the national standard for labeling but there is no mention of a final deadline for restaurant compliance. Through my experience advising government on environmental policy design in the early 90s I've seen this problem a good few times.  Politicians love new legislation that sets out the plan.  Something to get them a few column inches, a photo in a paper and a shot at a radio interview.  Trouble is once the moment has passed the hard work begins and the politician is fixated on the next vote winner with little or no come back if their last conquest and victory lays on a shelf somewhere.  Some of the work I got involved with in the 90s is just about coming round again now in 2010!  Time lags make any benefits that much harder to achieve whether we're talking about the environment or people's health.

Expect some very dragged heels - especially from companies with much yellow and red in their logos where a regular size drink can contribute 50% or more of an adults daily recommended calorific intake or from the insane grinning man with glasses and a white beard...

Count the calories?  Count the consultant lobby firms more like!

As a funny aside, Vice President Biden and Barack Obama staged a TV handshaking session on Tuesday (see, happy to take the limelight now, where will they be in a year's time if the FDA fail to hit the deadline?). Biden was heard to say to the President right at the end of the national TV slot, "this is a big fucking deal!"  It's nice to have real people in top slots.